Doing the Math on a Trade Down
What would it take for the Saints to move out of the second overall draft pick?

posted April 5, 2006 - print me!
neworleansprofootball.com

NOPF NFL Draft 2006 Central

The Saints are willing to entertain trade offers for the second overall pick, but Mickey Loomis will not be had for cheap on raw draft pick value. Loomis, Rick Mueller and Rick Reiprish have been the brain trust behind value-focused Saints drafts in the past, and along with new head coach Sean Payton will look at all their options.

In fact, given the Saints' needs, the perception of the values of the top rated prospects and the interest teams may have in trading up to select one of the five or six elite players, a trade down by New Orleans is a distinct possibility. Payton is also a student of Dallas HC Bill Parcells, who traded down on numerous occasions, including twice in the 1997 draft.

Here are the kind of offers they might be receiving.

Picks for Picks

According to the league-wide recognized Draft Pick Point Scale, developed by former Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson's administration in the early 90's, the Saints' second overall pick is worth 2600 points.

Just to give you an idea of how highly valued the second pick is: the Denver Broncos have an extra first round pick and two extra fourth rounders, but would have to give up their entire 2006 draft allotment and a 2007 late-first rounder (valued as a 2006 second-rounder) to have enough ammo to tempt the Saints for a swap. Future picks given up are typically valued as a current pick in the next lowest round when gauging value in trades.

So pick for picks, the Broncos do not have what it takes to trade up to #2. Even if they were to pull the trigger on such an insane deal, who would they really be targeting?

On the other hand, the Jets do have the ammo to reasonably entice the Saints to drop back: their two first round picks (4th and 29th overall) plus their two fourth round picks (103rd and 117th) would be nearly perfect mathematically. However, this deal was a lot more likely before the Jets traded for Washington QB Patrick Ramsey to provide insurance against another Chad Pennington injury. Ramsey cost only a sixth round pick, but carries the contract he signed after the Redskins drafted him in the late first round. The Jets did send their entire scouting staff to see QB Matt Leinart at USC's Pro Day.

The Broncos and Jets are the only two teams with multiple first round picks. Other potential trade partners include Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona and St. Louis.

The Titans have the #3 pick, but may be willing to trade up with the Saints to ensure getting their choice of either Leinart or Texas QB Vince Young. Going by pick value, a deal that makes sense would be the Saints' first and fourth round picks (second and 99th overall) in exchange for the Titans' first and second round picks (third and 39th overall), but such a trade would be only the result of a panic on GM Floyd Reese's part.

Players and Picks

Adding a premier player is also a way to get a trade deal done. In 2001, Tim Dwight was included in the trade package that the Falcons used to entice the Chargers to trade down three spots out of the #1 slot. The Falcons gave up Dwight, a third round pick and a second round pick the next year in order to swap picks with San Diego. According to the points, Dwight was rated as a first round pick in the high 20's in this trade.

Anyone outside the top 10 would have to offer the Saints a player rated at least equivalent to a top 10 pick, just to get near 2600 points. It is not known, given the especially secretive administration in place, if the Saints have their eyes on any players currently on rosters. In fact, contact with a player under contract would be technically illegal under league rules against tampering. It would not be hard to understand the Saints accepting a proven veteran, a lower first round pick, and perhaps a third-round pick to fill the hole in the Saints' current draft roster. Aside from quarterback, runningback, wide receiver and defensive end, any position on the roster could be a target for a draft pick + starting-quality player trade.

Hold a QB for Ransom

Last seen in 2004 when the Chargers held Eli Manning hostage and elicited a ransom payment from the Giants, the Saints could adopt the same risky strategy. Should the Saints not find themselves willing to pull the trigger on a trade deal, and are intent on maximizing value by trading down, the Saints could simply draft USC QB Matt Leinart.

And wait for the phone to ring.

The Titans and Jets are the prime candidates for such a strategy, but any team seeking a quarterback could find the need to increase their trade offer in order to get Leinart. The Chargers and Giants struck a deal in 2004 as the Giants were on the clock. The Giants drafted NC State QB Phillip Rivers with the intent to complete a trade with the Chargers, who had drafted Eli Manning 45 minutes earlier to a chorus of boos. Rivers arrived in San Diego along with the Giants' third round pick in '04 and first and fifth round picks in '05, and Manning went to New York.

If the Saints don't want to keep Leinart - and that's a big if - and can't satisfactorily trade down, a similar event could arise. The Saints could draft Leinart or Young and then trade him to the team that drafts the player the Saints really want, probably Virginia tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. The same could be true if the Texans or their trade partner takes Young first overall, and the Saints are left to draft USC RB Reggie Bush.

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