USC LB Keith Rivers

NOPF Mock Draft v3.0
New Orleans back in top 10 for second time in three years

posted March 21, 2008 - print me!
neworleansprofootball.com

Free agency has shaped and crafted the NFL Draft to an extent. Teams still draft for value - keeping need in mind - and some free agency additions or trades don't impact a team's long-term needs or draft strategy.

Of the Saints' moves, only the trade for Vilma really affected their intentions. Assuming they are confident about his knee recovery, the Saints have little need for a player who can only make an impact at middle linebacker in the first round.

The signings of CB Randall Gay and LB Dan Morgan, who will play outside, don't lessen draft needs at those spots. Gay is hardly the solution at the spot, and the Saints have no healthy starting-quality man to line up across from him. The Saints still have needs for a long-term solution at weakside linebacker, where Scott Shanle is only adequate and Morgan is far from a safe bet to stay healthy.

Meanwhile, the Saints have a glaring need for youth at defensive tackle and they must instill some sort of urgency at free safety. Tight end lacks a true impact player, rather the current depth chart features a platoon of one-dimensionals. Finding a return man is an issue, as is securing the services of a backup who can renew the spirit of Steve Gleason and Fred McAfee on special teams.

So starts version 3.0, days before the Saints' decision goes up for vote on the NOPF Discussion Boards...

Version 2.0 | 1.0

*Changed from version 2.0.

1. Miami (1-15)
Virginia DE Chris Long

2. St. Louis (3-13)
Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston

3. Atlanta (4-12)
LSU DT Glenn Dorsey

4. Oakland (4-12)
Michigan OT Jake Long

5. Kansas City (4-12)
Boise State OT Ryan Clady*

6. New York Jets (4-12)
Arkansas RB Darren McFadden

7. New England (from San Francisco (5-11))
Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams*

8. Baltimore (5-11)
Boston College QB Matt Ryan

9. Cincinnati (7-9)
USC DT Sedrick Ellis*

10. New Orleans (7-9)
See above for an update on the Saints' needs, but that is only half the equation. More than half of this draft pick will come based off an adherence to the team's draft board, and we fully expect that a calm, cool Mickey Loomis will use the full 10 minutes to consider offers to trade down.

And with both top defensive tackles gone, that leaves last version's pick, USC's Keith Rivers, whose arrival would pleasantly complicate things for linebackers coach Joe Vitt and create a three-headed competition at weakside linebacker. Neither Dan Morgan nor Scott Shanle can be seen as long-term solutions with upside, certainly not to the extent of Rivers. But as we discussed last week, Rivers has a troubling lack of playmaking statistics during his long career at a top collegiate program. He also compares unfavorably to other top linebackers in past drafts that didn't go as high. In a way Rivers appears to be one of the safer bets in the first round, on the other hand he may be continue to be frustratingly unspectacular.

None of the cornerback prospects seem as rock solid. Even the phenomenon that is Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is bound to lose luster before draft day. DRC's senior campaign was a down year considering his junior, he may be too tall to turn with faster receivers downfield - like Joey Galloway and Steve Smith. At only 183 pounds he might be too lean to stand up to an NFL schedule. And of course the concern about habits formed while playing against inferior competition.

Troy's Leodis McKelvin seems polished enough but is not the most physical, and only four interceptions in 47 career games? South Florida's Mike Jenkins may turn out to be nothing more than a poor man's Adam Jones. Kansas' Aqib Talib may never be able to progress beyond nickelback, because he lacks NFL-rated octane to run with receivers in the NFC South.

All may turn into fine pros, but the risk is significant with this sort of money. Regardless of the Saints' opinions right now of these players, their top linebacker and top cornerback is on the board. But in this writer's opinion, there is no way that any of the cornerbacks are more highly rated than Rivers. Should the Saints follow their draft board, as we expect them to, Rivers is the pick. Should the Saints draft for need, look for a cornerback.

Also, if Dorsey or Ellis manage to slide here, the pick is immediate.

11. Buffalo (7-9)
Florida DE Derrick Harvey*

12. Denver (7-9)
Pittsburgh T Jeff Otah*

13. Carolina (7-9)
Illinois RB Reshard Mendenhall*

14. Chicago (7-9)
Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly

15. Detroit (7-9)
Clemson DE Philip Merling*

16. Arizona (8-8)
Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart*

17. Minnesota (8-8)
Troy CB Leodis McKelvin*

18. Houston (8-8)
Auburn LB/DE Quentin Groves

19. Philadelphia (8-8)
Michigan State WR Devin Thomas*

20. Tampa Bay (9-7)
Louisville QB Brian Brohm*

21. Washington (9-7)
Miami S Kenny Phillips

22. Dallas (from Cleveland (10-6))
Indiana WR James Hardy*

23. Pittsburgh (10-6)
Virginia G Branden Albert*

24. Tennessee (10-6)
Kansas DB Aqib Talib*

25. Seattle (10-6)
Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie*

26. Jacksonville (10-6)
North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer*

27. San Diego (11-5)
USC OT Sam Baker

28. Dallas (11-5)
Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo*

29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis (13-3))
Cal WR Desean Jackson

30. Green Bay (13-3)
LSU WR Early Doucet*

31. New York Giants (13-3)
Notre Dame DT Trevor Laws

Saints Draft:

2 (40). Indiana CB Tracy Porter*

3 (78). Virginia Tech DT Carlton Powell*

5. Tennessee S Jonathan Hefney*

6. Wisconsin DT Nick Hayden*

7. Boston College WR Kevin Challenger*

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